Crude oil rose for three consecutive weeks, with metals generally rising. LME tin rose by over 2%, with LME aluminum leading the gains. Precious metals all fell on a weekly basis [overnight market].

Jun 21, 2025 10:27

Source:SMM

SMM June 21 news:

Metal market:

Overnight, base metals in the domestic market nearly all rose, with SHFE tin up 1.17%, SHFE copper up 0.26%, SHFE nickel down 0.22%, SHFE lead up 0.12%, SHFE aluminum up 0.22%, and SHFE zinc up 0.14%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.14%, while the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract gained 0.15%.

Overnight, ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.57%, stainless steel flat at 12,535 yuan/mt, rebar up 0.1%, and HRC up 0.16%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.06%, while coke dropped 0.65%.

Overnight, LME base metals all rose, with LME copper up 0.47%, LME aluminum up 1.59%, LME lead up 0.15%, LME zinc up 0.32%, LME tin up 2.13%, and LME nickel up 0.03%.

Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.7%, with a weekly decline of 1.98%; COMEX silver dropped 2.57%, with a weekly decrease of 0.18%. SHFE gold rose 0.24%, with a weekly decline of 1.81%; SHFE silver fell 0.02%, with a weekly drop of 1.75%.

As of 8:39 on June 21, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard

Macro front

Domestic:

[MIIT: Accelerate Cultivation of Green Momentum in Emerging Industries]The Party Group of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducted a theoretical study session on June 19. The meeting emphasized the need to deeply recognize the critical and fundamental role of manufacturing in promoting green economic development and ensuring energy security, continuously advance industrial technological innovation, enhance the development level of new energy equipment, strengthen high-quality technological supply capabilities, and solidify the foundation of energy security. Based on achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, efforts should be accelerated to promote green and low-carbon development, vigorously drive green transformation of traditional industries, further improve resource recycling levels, and consolidate the competitive advantages of green and low-carbon industries. The cultivation of green momentum in emerging industries should be accelerated, with green and low-carbon as the key direction for forward-looking layout, focusing on key industries such as clean and low-carbon hydrogen, new-type energy storage, and green intelligent computing, strengthening cutting-edge technological innovation and landmark product development, and accelerating solution development and expansion of typical application scenarios.

[China's Wind Power Installed Capacity Grows Rapidly, Wind Power Generation Exceeds 12% This Year]The 2025 Offshore Wind Power Conference was held in Dalian, Liaoning on June 20, where the Global Offshore Wind Market Outlook and Global Wind Report were released. The reports show that since this year, China's wind power installed capacity has grown rapidly, with wind power generation exceeding 12%. By 2030, the global installed capacity of offshore wind power is expected to exceed 230 gigawatts, with China's deep-sea projects becoming a core growth point for international cooperation. Data shows that as of April, the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity of wind power in China accounted for 15.5%. In the first four months of this year, China's wind power generation reached 381.43 billion kWh, accounting for 12.78% of the total power generation. With the rapid growth of wind power installations, the cost of wind power will also continue to decrease. (CCTV News)

[Next week, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repo operations will mature in the central bank's open market operations] Data shows that next week, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repo operations will mature in the central bank's open market operations, with 242 billion yuan, 197.3 billion yuan, 156.3 billion yuan, 203.5 billion yuan, and 161.2 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday next week, respectively. In addition, 100 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will also mature next Monday.

[CPCA: June narrow-sense passenger vehicle retail sales expected to reach 2 million units, with new energy sales expected to reach 1.1 million units] The CPCA stated that after entering June, producers have intensified their sales promotions to achieve quarterly and semi-annual targets, directly boosting terminal sales. The latest survey results show that the overall discount rate in the auto market in mid-June was approximately 24.8%. The retail sales targets of leading producers, which account for more than 80% of the total market, increased by 15% YoY compared to May last year and by approximately 4% MoM. It is comprehensively estimated that the total retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles this month will be around 2 million units, up 13.4% YoY and 3.2% MoM. Among them, new energy retail sales are expected to reach 1.1 million units, with the penetration rate increasing to approximately 55%. (Finance Link)

US dollar:

The US dollar index rose 0.01% overnight, closing at 98.78. On a weekly basis: The US dollar index closed higher for the week, with a weekly gain of 0.67%. The US dollar index was flat on Friday after US Fed Governor Waller stated that, given recent inflation data, an interest rate cut should be considered as early as July. The Fed's monetary policy report indicated that financial stability remains "resilient" amid increased uncertainty; market liquidity has improved, but market conditions remain sensitive to news related to trade policies; and liquidity in the stock, corporate bond, and municipal bond markets has also substantially deteriorated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July decreased to 83.5% (from 91.7% yesterday), with a 16.5% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 29%, with a 60.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 10.8% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point interest rate cut.

Fed Governor Barkin stated that current data does not show an urgent need for an interest rate cut, as the job market and consumption remain strong. The final direction of trade policies has not yet been determined, nor is it clear how they will affect prices and employment. Businesses expect to raise prices later this year as more expensive imported goods have entered their inventories. Businesses not affected by tariffs view the chaos in trade policies as an opportunity to raise prices.

US Fed's Daly stated that concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation are not as severe as initially announced; without tariff measures, interest rate normalization would be considered; the sustained decline in inflation is good news. She also indicated that economic fundamentals are moving in a direction that may necessitate an interest rate cut, and unless signs of weakness emerge in the labour market, an interest rate cut in the autumn seems more appropriate. (Financial Associated Press)

In other currency news:

Michael Pfister of Commerzbank believes that the Swiss franc may strengthen moderately in the coming months. He pointed out that after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered interest rates to 0% on Thursday, there is little room for further rate cuts. Pfister stated that further rate cuts would have limited impact in addressing low inflation, as some of the reasons are beyond the SNB's control. After Switzerland was placed on the US's currency manipulator watch list, it has become unrealistic for the SNB to take foreign exchange intervention measures to curb the strength of the Swiss franc. Commerzbank expects the EUR/CHF exchange rate to fall from the current 0.9407 francs to 0.92 francs by December this year. (FX678)

Macro side:

Next week, data including the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for France in June, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Germany in June, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in June, the preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for the UK in June, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the UK in June, the UK's CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June 23-30), the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US in June, and the annualized total of existing home sales in the US in May will be released.

In addition, next week's notable events include the 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy insights at the 100th Annual Meeting of the Western Economic Association International; ECB President Lagarde delivering an introductory speech at a hearing held by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs; and Fed Governor Bowman speaking on monetary policy and banking.

Crude oil side:

The trends of the two oil futures diverged, with US oil rising by 0.73% and Brent oil falling by 1.69%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures posted three consecutive weekly gains, rising by 1.45% this week; Brent oil futures also rose for three consecutive weeks, gaining 2.09% this week. US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy companies fell for the eighth consecutive week this week, the first such decline since September 2023. Data showed that as of the week ending June 20, the total number of US oil and natural gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, decreased by one to 554, the lowest level since November 2021, and down 34 rigs, or 5.8%, from the same period last year.

The US has imposed new sanctions on Iran, which the market interprets as the US hoping to reach an agreement through negotiations. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "So far, oil exports have not been disrupted, and there is no shortage of supply. From now on, the direction of oil prices will depend on whether supply is disrupted." Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty said that if the conflict escalates to the point where Israel attacks export infrastructure or Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait, it could lead to oil prices reaching $100 per barrel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that oil prices have not risen significantly due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, and there is no need for OPEC to intervene in the oil market. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Crude oil rose for three consecutive weeks, with metals generally rising. LME tin rose by over 2%, with LME aluminum leading the gains. Precious metals all fell on a weekly basis [overnight market].

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